Essential elements of intelligence and the intelligence cycle in overseas relations include what is better described as “the cover story”. It is an old conundrum referring to the story that is put out to the public and sustained as a narrative to mask far more strategic interests in government-to- government relations.It is based on that established thin line between the right to know and the need to know and indeed in diplomatic relations, if ordinary people are allowed to know everything, there will be utter chaos on the streets around the world.
I make this point in the light of the excitement that US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit appears to be generating. He will visit Nigeria, August 23-24, after Kenya, 22-23, and from here, he will jet off to Saudi Arabia, 24-25.
The cover story is that he will hold talks with President Muhammadu
Buhari, Northern Governors and religious leaders, give a speech on “countering
violent extremism” in Sokoto, and thematically focus on “counter-terrorism
efforts, the economy, the fight against corruption and human rights issues”
during the trip. Nicely, correctly
crafted cover story! America loves Nigeria. America wants to help Nigeria. And
once we are told this story, even our foreign ministry officials get really
excited. They tell the President: “this is big! It shows America is supporting
the administration. Mr. President, America loves you, don’t mind those tweeps
on social media.” They would have forgotten most conveniently that Secretary
John Kerry has been visiting Africa since 2014, and before him, Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton did so too. We tend to be overly impressed by the
recognition, but we often fail to look beyond the cover story.
The Americans don’t consider a visit such as this the circus that we
think it is. And that is why the Foreign Affairs Ministry must put up its
thinking caps in preparing the briefing notes for President Buhari. They must
anticipate one critical question that the cover story does not cover: what does
America want? What is in this visit for the United States? And what does
Nigeria want? And what should the Nigerian President say to Mr. Kerry at that
critical moment when he suddenly requests for a one-on-one and all Presidential
assistants are asked to leave the room? That is usually where the rub is, that
critical moment when the Nigerian President is left alone with a strategic
guest and he may not know exactly what to say to messages and statements for
which he had not been prepared. And when the American envoy makes requests,
what should he say at that very moment? We have a lot at stake, and it is
important that this particular visit is not treated as another opportunity to
have a nice dinner party and showcase Nigerian culture and arts.
John Kerry attended President Buhari’s
inauguration in May 2015. This is what
he wrote, inter alia, after the
visit: “Last May, I shared in an
extraordinary moment. I had the privilege, together with many leaders from across
Africa, of bearing witness to the first peaceful, democratic transition of
power between two parties in Nigeria. I traveled to Lagos earlier this year to
emphasize that for the United States, Nigeria is an increasingly important
strategic partner with a critical role to play in the security and prosperity
of the region. I also said that it was imperative that these elections set a
new standard for democracy in the continent. There is no doubt that this is a
decisive moment for democracy in Africa…In Africa, as elsewhere, there is a
deep hunger for governments that are legitimate, honest and effective….”
Secretary of State Kerry will be visiting Nigeria tomorrow I believe, to
carry out a year-after, on-the-spot, hear-see-for-yourself assessment. He must have heard that a year after his last
visit, so much has happened in Nigeria, and the rest of Africa. Africa itself
is at a tipping point, growth has slowed down tragically, commodity prices have
declined, old problems and wounds have resurfaced, and democratic renewal has
not resulted in “honest and effective” governance, and in all this, Nigeria
faces special challenges; it is at the outmost edge of that tipping point. The threat level in the country has gone up,
policy uncertainty is high, the people’s voices are not being heard and
generally, things are hard: unemployment, security issues, human rights, and an
economy in recession capable of exacerbating social crisis and so on.
America will expect President Buhari to defend his administration. The
briefing notes must take care of that, but let no one be fooled: no one may
have talked about behind-the-scene meetings, the truth is that the American
team will not listen to only one side of the story. There will be undeclared meetings
with civil society, the opposition, the business community and other interest
groups, who in typical Nigerian fashion will speak their minds. Right now, that
may not be complimentary. Non-state actors are perhaps more important sources
of intelligence because intelligence is neither mere information nor publicity
or a strictly state-based activity. Take this: John Kerry may be visiting to
enable the American government make up its mind about the Buhari government.
But why should anyone care about what America thinks? We are after all,
a sovereign nation, and Secretary of State John Kerry should not even be
talking to President Buhari, he should meet with his counterpart in our own
foreign ministry. Hold it. The
difference is that America remains the world’s superior power and it does not joke
with its self-assigned role of the world’s police, even if at the centre of that
mix, is the paramount element of America’s national interest. Nigeria, being
the most populous country in Africa, and an oil-rich country with international
investments, is of strategic interest to the United States.
We are, by that fact also, a threat to
America’s interest in a number of ways. The first is the threat of Nigeria
becoming a festering spot for terrorism, and home of the world’s deadliest
terror group. Since May 2015, the Buhari administration has made efforts to
curb terrorism in the problematic parts of the North, but in the past few
weeks, with the re-appearance of Abubakar Shekau, the factionalisation of the Jama’t Ahl as-Sunnah lid Da’wah wa’l Jihad
with a faction led by Abu Musab al-Barnawi, and the further confirmation of a
linkage with the ISIL, it seems obvious that the threat of terrorism in Nigeria
is far from being resolved. The potential of that threat getting worse is even
far more evident now more than ever.
The second threat is the Niger Delta, and the resurgence of violence in
that volatile part of the world. America
may have discovered Shale oil and its reliance on Nigerian Brent crude may have
reduced, but American multinationals still have significant investments in Nigeria.
America has every reason to protect American investment and citizens. The third
threat is Nigeria’s continuing romance with China. The Jonathan administration
did not hide its interest in China and Sino-Nigerian relations. I believe his
administration paid dearly for this open, and well-intended friendship with
America’s rival in Africa. The Buhari administration continued in this regard,
where the Jonathan administration left off, since in any case, Nigeria is
non-aligned, but the sub-text is that the United States may not be too
comfortable with the Chinese encroachment on spaces it once occupied and the
open complicity of traditional allies in undermining American interest.
President Buhari should be briefed to listen very carefully to both what is spoken
and that which is unspoken.
The fourth threat is the security situation in the country. In the last month alone, both the United
States and the United Kingdom have released, perhaps the most damaging travel
warnings to their nationals living in or doing business in Nigeria. The UK
Foreign and Commonwealth Office advises against travel by British nationals to
11 states of the Federation, and strictly essential travel to another seven
states. The United States warns against travel to about 20 states. Both
countries cite “high threat from terrorism, kidnapping, violent crime and
demonstrations/civil unrest.” What is
left? It is as bad as both major partner-countries alleging that Nigeria is not
safe for anyone. Their European allies and other countries may not have issued
any travel warnings, but the disclaimers from the US and the UK can be taken as
a reflection of the assessment of the Nigerian situation and international
reaction to Nigeria’s change agenda since 2015.
Whoever is preparing the briefing notes for President Buhari should take
this into consideration.
And may I advise that the briefing should avoid the initial reaction by
Information Minister Lai Muhammed. He dismissed the travel warnings as untrue
and advised the Nigerian media to ignore and not promote the story. It actually seems as if the local media acted
as directed. Which is stupid. What has
been overlooked is that foreign embassies in Nigeria from where intelligence
about local situations is sourced are non-partisan. Ahead of the visit by
Secretary of State John Kerry, the Foreign Affairs Ministry should have engaged
the relevant embassies and assured them of the administration’s efforts. They
could have issued ahead of John Kerry’s arrival, a reasonable account of what
has been done so far, in a manner that does not compromise the sovereign, but
which deals with the perception issues thrown up by the pre-Kerry visit build
up by America and its allies.
And
of course, whatever the tone of the diplomatese, always look beyond the cover
stories. John Kerry’s visit may be the tipping point for the Buhari administration
and it may well not be, considering the fact that the United States is itself
in transition, but if Secretary of State Hillary Clinton becomes President, we
would be dealing from January 2017 with someone who knows Nigeria too well. In
the meantime, President Buhari should have something specific to say to the
United States through Kerry. It’d be wrong to treat this as a farewell visit by
a lame-duck American administration. Not yet and certainly not so. President Barack Obama will leave office in
November without ever visiting Nigeria!
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